The
B+20 project is an outgrowth of more than 10 years of US-Mexico
an border region research conducted by investigators associated
with the Southwest Center for Enviornmental Research & Policy
(SCERP). The project is driven, in large part, by two
principal vision statements for 2020 made at the 1st Border
Institute in 1999;
1. A
healthy and sustainable natural environment...a
secure and adequate quality
of life for all border inhabitants.
2. A sustainable and
responsible border economy...enhanced employment,
education, and business opportunities.
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These vision statements reflect the recognition
that rapid population growth is leading to reduced quality
of life for inhabitants of the border-region.
The B+20
project will develop analytical tools that will assist decision-makers
in gaining an improved understanding of the interactions between
human natural environments in Border-Region
environmental systems. The 'B' stands for the
border where we look ahead '+ 20' years. Thus, we view
the future through a moving
20 year window that enables us to anticipate both
long- and short-term outcomes to policy decisions.
A principal long-term goal of the B+20 project is to
develop a decision-support tool that has some of the attributes
of LFB
Quest and Threshold
21. These software tools provide visioning environments
and user-friendly opportunities for decision-makers to explore
the answers to various 'what if' questions that reflect the
possible outcomes of different policy alternatives.
In the short-term we will use icon-based system dynamics software
as a foundation for evaluating more advanced modeling tools
and for developing intermediate decision-support tools.
System dynamics modeling provides an environment for exploring
dynamic patterns, links and feedback within natural/social
systems such as the US-Mexico Border-Region.
The system dynamics
approach involves a point
of view that differs from the detailed view typically
adopted by experts within their field of expertise. For
example, the detailed variation in the red time-series graph
shown in the point of view figure
becomes smoother as a broader view is adopted. The
multidisciplinaryproject team provides
the expertise needed to assess which features of the system
must be preserved while identifying factors that can
be neglected. Our goal is to provide a software environment
that yields different trends in behavior as outcomes of policy
decisions - rather than attempting to explicitly model the future. Icon-based
system dynamics software provides for the following:
- Integrate
science/engineering/social fields
- Engage
experts and stakeholders in process
- Aid
group-based decision making and model
design
- Explore
interrelated processes and feedback
- Construct
and test alternate scenarios
- Find
data gaps
- Basis
for Phase 2 modeling
Binational environmental
planning reflects national differences
and shared/overlapping systems. For example,
US and Mexico have different: cultural/political contexts,
access to resources, environmental agencies/commisions and
environmental vs. economic priorities. At the same time
the two nations share: air sheds, watersheds, ecosystems,
economies, transportation networks and human resources.
A system dynamic model quantitatively accounts for both the
differences and commonalties.
In adopting the system dynamics approach we work with a set
of relatively detailed sector
models that represent the various parts of the system
incorporated in a model. We are engaging
experts, stockholders and our client (funding is provided to
SCERP through the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) in the
process of developing the sector models and inter-sector linkages. At
present we confine ourselves to two geographic
areas; Imperial-Mexicali valleys and El Paso/Ciudad
Juarez. As the project evolves we will consider other
border communities within the Border-Region. Principal
sectors of the environmental system currently under consideration
include the following:
- Population -
reflects rapid population growth due
to both local births
and in-migration
- Air Quality -
accounts for sources and migration
of airborne constituents
- Water Availability
- rationalizes the need for potable
water in view of exploitable water
resources
- Water Quality -
represents overall variations in water
quality
- Energy -
recognizes that human endeavor requires
energy in a variety
of forms
- Economy -
links human resources and commerce
- Quality of
Life -
indicators of human health and well-being
- Politics -
local, regional, national and international
- Health- indicators
of human health
